As both winners and losers in the recent election, the Christian Coalition has strengthened its hand. All but giving up on Bob Dole, the Christian Coalition focused its energy on retaining a Republican majority in Congress. The group distributed 45 million voter guides through 125,000 churches. This year, almost all congressional members receiving a 100% Christian Coalition rating retained their seats, exceeding the 1994 outcome. In 1994, 61% of congressional candidates receiving the group's 100% rating were elected.
Ralph Reed predicted that his 100,000 volunteers would "act as a firewall" to keep Bob Dole's flop from creating a "meltdown" for Republicans in Congress. There is little doubt that the Christian Coalition voter guides helped the GOP to maintain control of the House and Senate.
The 1996 election results indicated a Republican power shift from the Northeast to the South, where the Christian Coalition is the strongest. Senator Jesse Helms won his bid for reelection; Republicans gained a Senate seat with the election of Jeff Sessions in Alabama; and the Republicans held Texas, where the Christian Coalition is well-organized. These successes will encourage the Christian Coalition to stay on its current course.
Though seemingly a loss for the Christian Coalition, President Clinton's reelection will help the Christian Coalition with fundraising and recruiting. In 1990, Pat Robertson set a goal of putting one of their own in the White House by the year 2000. The Christian Coalition will push to make this a reality.
Of course, the Christian Coalition lost some contests other than the White House. For instance, in Louisiana, Louis "Woody" Jenkins, a member of the Council for National Policy (CNP), received support from national religious right leaders. However, the support he received from local conservatives was not enough for him to overtake Democrat Mary Landrieu. In Delaware, Ray Clatworthy, another CNP member and Christian Coalition favorite, lost his bid to unseat Sen. Joe Biden.
Now the question is, as the GOP works toward reunification, will the party shift to the center, focusing on fiscal issues, or feel beholden to Pat Robertson and broach controversial issues such as abortion, school vouchers, and school prayer?
Although an antiabortion amendment remains in the Republican platform, most Republican office-holders are unwilling to push for such legislation. Thus, many conservative Christians are dissatisfied with the GOP — and the Christian Coalition. Ralph Reed, for instance, appears to base his agenda on polls rather than religious conviction. His compromises on abortion and other issues have soured a large number of the group's members.
Moderate Republicans want to oust the religious extremists from the party and move away from divisive moral issues. By the next election, there may be considerable dissension within the Christian Coalition, and significant support for a conservative third party.
On another front, other Christian groups have finally arisen to confront the Christian Coalition on their own turf. These groups include the Interfaith Alliance — which distributed 5 million of its own voter guides in the 1996 elections — and the Call to Renewal movement.
The Christian Coalition is also on the defensive because of the Federal Election Commission suit charging it with campaign violations. Even if the Coalition succeeds in court, the Internal Revenue Service may rule against its provisional status as a 501(c)(4) tax-exempt organization. A back-tax debt would probably cripple the group.
Meanwhile, other conservative Christian organizations, such as Focus on the Family and Promise Keepers, have yet to flex their political muscle. In 1997, Promise Keepers hopes to host a million man rally in our nation's capital.
Perhaps the most troubling phenomenon is the rise of religiously based militant groups. Christian Patriots, Christian Identity, Aryan Nation, and "leaderless resistance" militias, are firmly rooted in the U.S. and growing. While these groups will never garner a broad base of support, they can cause enormous chaos. These groups generally view political action as hopeless, and some might resort to guerrilla warfare in hopes of generating a populist uprising. This fringe element within the religious right may become extremely problematic.
In conclusion, the next four years may be a political free-for-all for the Christian Coalition and the radical religious right in general. If the movement achieves greater solidarity, it will be formidable at the polls. However, it remains to be seen whether people who have more interest in religion than in politics can stay politically active in the long run.